Defending champion Novak Djokovic looks the man Andy Murray will have to beat in London. The Serbian is 11-4 (various) second favourite to land the top prize. The world No. 3 is also 8-15 with Stan James to beat Nikolay Davydenko (a 14-1 title chance with Sporting Bet) in his first game in Group B – a repeat of last year’s final – which the former won 6-1 7-5. World No. 2 Rafael Nadal – a decent value 17-2 with Boylesports for the title despite recent inconsistency – is up against French Open runner-up Robin Soderling (26-1 Expekt.com) on Monday, the other players in the group. The Spanish star is 4-5 with Expekt.com to win first up.
Tournament favourite Roger Federer, like Nadal, has also looked vulnerable in recent weeks – the world No. 1 went out early in Paris recently, producing an error strewn effort against the lowly-ranked Julien Benneteau. Federer, rated at 5-2 (various) to win the event, meets tournament outsider Fernando Verdasco (40-1 with Boylesports and Extrabet) in his first Group A game – and is 2-9 with Boylesports to prevail, Verdasco being a 9-2 shot with Sky Bet in the match.
Andy Murray is third favourite at 17-4 (Experkt.com) and his form has been decent all year, with a career-best six singles titles won in 2009. He was victorious on his comeback from injury in Valencia earlier this month, and reached the third round last time out in Paris, tiredness being cited as a reason for his exit – having only won his second round match against James Blake 16 hours before. Murray holds a superior head-to-head record to all his group opponents – Federer 6-3, Del Potro 4-1 and Verdasco 7-1 – although he has also lost to all three players this year.
He faces US Open champion Del Potro first up (4-9 to prevail with Sky Bet), although the Argentine could be the dark horse of the tournament despite suffering from a wrist problem recently – he is 21-10 with Expekt.com to shock the home favourite. Incidentally, Murray beat Del Potro last time out, in the final of the Montreal Masters in August.
Big value on the outsiders
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Del Potro actually looks a decent outside bet for the title at 14-1 with Expekt.com – the 6ft 6ins Argentine having risen to No. 5 in the world. However, since his first-ever Grand Slam success, he has struggled – twice retiring from tournaments through injury. With the drain of this being his breakthrough year, could he lift himself for London?
Incidentally, standby player Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is rated at 50-1 with Sporting Bet should he receive a late call – or, given the recent record of retirements, be called in to replace a player during the group phase.
There are a variety of specials bets which could be worth considering for the tournament. A Federer-Murray final is 7-2 with Sky Bet, while a Murray-Djokovic showpiece is a decent 9-1 with the same firm. Djokovic is also rated at 5-4 with Sky Bet and Ladbrokes to reach the final a week on Sunday. Del Potro is 11-8 with Sky Bet to get through Group A, while at the other end of the scale, Verdasco is 4-1 with Ladbrokes not to win a set.
Ladbrokes are also running some Roger Federer specials – 10-1 is being offered that he will smash his racket during a match, while he is 25-1 not to lose a set in the tournament. Paddy Power also offer 9-2 that Federer will win the tournament without losing a match in Group A – Djokovic is 5-1 to do likewise, from Group B.
Other player bets to look out for include most double faults – Robin Soderling is 10-1 with Paddy Power, with Rafael Nadal an appealing 40-1 – while Andy Murray is 11-4 to achieve most service breaks, all with the same firm.
In terms of match trends to look out for, Ladbrokes are again offering some attractive propositions. Any match to end 7-6 7-6 is rated a 5-4 chance; over four matches to go to a third set tie break (all matches are best of three sets in the tournament) is a 4-1 chance. The final to go to a third set tie break is a 5-1 shot, while 0 sets to be lost by the winner is 20-1.
